000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 11N94W to 11N111W to 07N121W. The ITCZ begins near 07N122W and continues to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N E of 85W, from 07N to 12N between 111W and 120W, and N of 12N between 90W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 99W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center near 32N135W southeastward to the vicinity of the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The associated gradient is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California just north of Cabo San Lucas. Seas there are in the 5-7 ft range. The high pressure will continue to dominate the area allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight as a new set of northwest swell propagates into the forecast waters and mixes with a southwest swell component. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate southeasterly winds will continue through Mon along with seas of about 2-4 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to locally moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the Tehuantepec region through the middle of next week. A broad area of low pressure and disorganized showers several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Oaxaca, Mexico is likey to support to fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds in the outer portion of this offshore zone from this afternoon through early Sun morning. This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the outer Guerrero, Mexico offshore waters on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Mainly gentle to moderate east to south east winds are forecast to continue through Sun evening with seas to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will begin to pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo early on Mon, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Mon evening and continuing through Wed. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft range. Broad low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is present over the area N of northern Panama to well west of the offshore forecast waters. Gradual development of the low pressure is possible during the next few days several hundred miles offshore northern Central America, possibly leading to increasing winds and seas across the offshore forecast waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Mainly gentle to moderate east winds are present north of the monsoon trough, while moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range. Little change in these conditions is expected through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through early next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the open Pacific waters west of 115W, except in the far western section of the area from 10N to 17N west of 127W, where a combination of northeast wind waves and a south swell has developed seas of 8-9 ft there. By early this evening seas are expected to build to 8 ft due to increasing winds associated to a small area of low pressure along the ITCZ near 117W that is being mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook. A new set of long-period south-southwest swell is forecast to reach 03.4S late tonight, and continue to propagate north- northeast through the weekend building seas to 8-10 ft by late Sun roughly south of a line from 01N124W to 02N112W and to south of 03.4S at 96W. Looking ahead, a small cluster of shower and thunderstorm activity located about 870 nm south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a weak area of low pressure. This system is moving westward at about 8 kt, and some slow development is possible during the next few days before it moves into a drier and more stable environment early next week. The large area of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the monsoon trough located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico presently remains disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days as it is forecast to slowly move west-northwestward to the south of Mexico. Southerly winds south of the monsoon trough in the vicinity of this shower and thunderstorm activity have increased in some spots to fresh to strong speeds, with seas to 8 ft. These conditions will translate westward with the aforementioned shower and thunderstorm activity as low pressure gradually develops. Seas are forecast to slowly build with time as this system acquires persistence in its duration. $$ Ramos