000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N83W to 11N100W to 1012 mb low pres near 09N114W. The ITCZ axis stretches from 07N117W to 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 84W and 91W, from 10N to 14N between 93W and 107W, and from 07N to 10N between 105W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that is northwest of the area near 33N136W southeastward to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range. The high pressure will continue to dominate the area allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California through Sat night. Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 N of Punta Eugenia as a new set of northwest swell propagates into the forecast waters and mixes with a southwest swell component. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend along with seas of about 2-4 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue in the Tehuantepec region through the upcoming weekend. Low pressure may form several hundred miles south of of the southeastern coast of Mexico during the next few days. This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters of southeastern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: The most recent scatterometer pass shows moderate to fresh winds across the Papagayo region with seas of 5-7 ft. These marine conditions will persist tonight and Sat. Low pressure may form along the monsoon trough several hundred miles offshore northern Central America possibly bringing some increase in winds and seas across the offshore forecast waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala during the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate east winds are present north of the monsoon trough, while moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 5-7 ft south of the trough. The seas south of the monsoon trough are likely to increase to peak of 8 or 9 ft over the next couple of days in enhanced southerly flow there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the open Pacific waters west of 115W. A new set of long period southerly swell is forecast to reach the equator on Sun building seas to 8-9 ft. Looking ahead, Shower activity is limited in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph and some slow development is possible during the next few days before it moves into a drier and more stable airmass early next week. A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward to the south of Mexico. $$ GR