000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281516
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low pressure
located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N85W to 09N104W 
to 08N112W. A surface trough is analyzed from 14N109W to 06N114W.
The ITCZ axis begins W of the trough at 08N116W then continues 
along 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection can be found from 03N to 07N E of 81W to the
coast of Colombia, from 08N to 10N between 84W and 89W, from 06N
to 14N between 93W and 105W, and from 10N to 12N between 128W 
and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is northwest of the area near 31N136W southeastward to the 
vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is
producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore 
waters of Baja California mainly north of 26N. Seas are generally
in the 5-7 ft range north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 3-5 ft 
elsewhere. The high pressure will continue to build into the area
allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters
west of Baja California through Sat night. Seas are likely to 
build to a peak of 9 ft as a set of northwest swell propagates 
through the waters south of 30N and mixes with a southwest swell 
component.

Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate winds will continue
through the upcoming weekend along with seas of about 2-4 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
will continue in the Tehuantepec region through the upcoming 
weekend. Low pressure may form several hundred miles south of 
of the southeastern coast of Mexico during the next few days. 
This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the 
offshore waters of southeastern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast to east winds over
the Gulf of Papagayo will begin to diminish this afternoon and
through the weekend. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft this
afternoon.

Gentle to moderate east winds are present north of the monsoon 
trough, while moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are
south of the monsoon trough. These winds will reach strong 
speeds at times on Fri as convection increases along and near the
monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 
5-7 ft south of the trough. The seas south of the monsoon trough
are likely to increase to peak of 8 or 9 ft over the next couple
of days in enhanced southerly flow there. This will occur ahead 
of low pressure that is expected to form along the monsoon trough
several hundred miles offshore northern Central America during 
the next few days. This may possibly lead to some increase of 
winds as well as build seas across the offshore forecast waters 
from Nicaragua to Guatemala.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern 
forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 
the ITCZ west of about 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the 
open Pacific waters west of 115W.

Looking ahead, shower activity has changed little in organization
during the past several hours in association with a broad area 
of low pressure located about 950 miles south- southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow 
development of this system is possible during the next few days 
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A 
trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of Acapulco, 
Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible 
during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward.

$$
GR