000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 09N79W to 08N90W to 10N104W and to 09N111W, where latest overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N120W to 10N126W to 09N130W and to beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 89W-91W, between 94W-101W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 101W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 110W-115W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 107W-110W and within 120 nm north of the trough between 111W-115W. Scattered moderate convection removed from the monsoon trough is along the coast of Colombia extending westward to near 80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a strong 1031 mb high pressure center that is northwest of the area near 32N135W southeastward to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California mainly north of 26N. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The high pressure will continue to build into the area allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California through Sat night. Seas are likely to build to a peak of 9 ft as a set of northwest swell propagates through the waters south of 30N and mixes with a southwest swell component. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate winds will continue through the upcoming weekend along with seas of about 2-4 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue in the Tehuantepec region through the upcoming weekend. Low pressure may form several hundred miles south of of the southeastern coast of Mexico during the next few days. This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the offshore waters of southeastern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will begin to diminish this afternoon and through the weekend. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft this afternoon. Gentle to moderate east winds are present north of the monsoon trough, while moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. These winds will reach strong speeds at times on Fri as convection increases along and near the monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 5-7 ft south of the trough. The seas south of the monsoon trough are likely to increase to peak of 8 or 9 ft over the next couple of days in enhanced southerly flow there. This will occur ahead of low pressure that is expected to form along the monsoon trough several hundred miles offshore northern Central America during the next few days. This may possibly lead to some increase of winds as well as build seas across the offshore forecast waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the open Pacific waters west of 115W. Looking ahead, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the broad area of low pressure located about 780 nm south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little more concentrated since 24 hours ago. Some additional slow development could occur during the next few days as this system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 8 kt. Overnight ASCAT data depicted fresh to strong easterly winds near the shower and thunderstorm activity. With showers and thunderstorms on the increasing trend, expect for these winds to continue through today and possibly longer if a definitive low pressure feature evolves from this broad area of low pressure. Farther east, another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Presently, environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this system as it will be forecast to move generally westward at 8 kt or less. $$ Aguirre