000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280357
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
10N74W to 09N79W to 08N90W to 08N102W and to 09N110W, where 
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 10N118W and to 10N126W where it pauses. It resumes at 
05N134W and continues to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the 
trough between 87W-91W, between 93W-96W, between 106W-110W
and within 60 nm north of the trough between 107W-110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered 
northwest of the area near 32N135W southeastward toward the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is producing 
moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of 
Baja California mainly north of 26N. Seas are generally in the 
5-7 ft range north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The
high pressure will continue to build into the area allowing for 
moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of Baja
California through Sat night. Seas are likely to build to 8 ft 
in mixed southwest and northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia 
Sat night into Sun.

Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate winds will 
continue through the upcoming weekend along with seas of
about 2-4 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
will continue in the Tehuantepec region through the upcoming 
weekend. Low pressure may form several hundred miles south or
southwest of the Tehuantepec region by this weekend, possibly 
bringing an increase in winds an seas across the offshore waters 
of southeastern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are 
expected in the Papagayo through early Fri morning with seas 
building to 8 ft. Thereafter, these winds will diminish to 
mainly moderate speeds through the upcoming weekend.

Gentle to moderate east winds are present north of the monsoon 
trough, while moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are
south of the monsoon trough. These winds will reach strong 
speeds at times on Fri as convection increases along and near the
monsoon trough. Seas north of the monsoon trough are 4-6 ft and 
5-7 ft south of the trough. The seas south of the monsoon trough
are likely to increase to peak of 8 or 9 ft over the couple of
days in enhance southerly flow there. This will occur ahead of 
low pressure that is expected to form along the monsoon trough 
several hundred miles offshore northern Central America during 
the next few days. This may possibly lead to some increase of 
winds as well as build seas across the offshore forecast waters 
from Nicaragua to Guatemala.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern 
forecast waters into the weekend. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 
the ITCZ west of about 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the 
open Pacific west of 115W.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about a 
thousand miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
conducive for development of this system as it moves westward or 
west-northwestward at about 8 kt. Farther east, another area of 
low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of 
the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
Presently, environmental conditions appear favorable for some 
gradual development of this system as it will be forecast to
move generally westward at 8 kt or less.

$$
Aguirre