000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
10N74W to 07N80W to 09N100W to 08N110W to 09N120W. A surface 
trough is analyzed from 10N128W to 04N136W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 08N between 
80W and 89W, from 06N to 11N between 89W and 100W, and from 08N
to 14N between 100W and 113W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered 
northwest of the area near 32N135W southeastward toward the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This system is now producing moderate to 
fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California 
but mainly N of 26N based on recent scatterometer pass. Seas are
generally in the 5-7 ft range N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 3-5 ft 
elsewhere. The high pressure will continue to build into the area
causing moderate to fresh NW winds across the waters W of Baja 
California through Sat night. Seas are likely to build to 8 ft in
NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Sat night into Sun. 

Gulf of California: Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will 
prevail with seas of 3 ft or less, except 2 to 4 ft in the
southern part of the Gulf.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
will prevail in the Tehuantepec region through the upcoming
weekend. A low pressure may form several hundred miles S or SW 
of the Tehuantepec region by this weekend, possibly bringing an
increase in winds an seas across the offshore waters zones of 
southern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds are expected in the
Papagayo region tonight into early Fri morning with seas building
to 8 ft. Then, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the monsoon
trough. Outside of the gap wind areas, seas are in the 3 to 5 ft
range. A low pressure may form along the monsoon trough several 
hundred miles off northern Central America possibly bringing some 
increase in winds an seas across the offshore forecast waters 
from Nicaragua to Guatemala during the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters
into the weekend. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much
of the open Pacific west of 115W.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about a 
thousand miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
conducive for development of this system as it moves westward or 
west-northwestward at about 10 kt. Farther E, another area of 
low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of 
the coast of southeastern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this 
system as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 kt. The Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 5 days.

$$
GR