000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271528
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 09N98W to 07N85W
to 09N100W to 10N120W. A surface trough is analyzed from 10N126W
to 05N135W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from
03N-08N between 78W-85W, from 10N-14N between 99W-105W, and from
08N-11N between 107W-114W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered 
northwest of the area near 32N135W southeastward toward the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing gentle to 
moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California 
with seas generally in the 3-5 ft range, except 5 to 7 ft N of 
Punta Eugenia. The high pressure will build into the area 
causing moderate to fresh NW winds across the waters W of Baja 
California tonight through Sun night. Seas are likely to build 
to 8-9 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Sat night into Sun, and 
may persist early on Mon.

Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
with seas below 3 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in
the Tehuantepec region today. Looking ahead, a low pressure may form
several hundred miles S of the Tehuantepec region by this weekend,
possibly bringing an increase in winds an seas across the offshore
waters zones of southern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds continue over and downwind of
the Gulf of Papagayo to about 90W. Fresh to locally strong E 
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight
into early Fri morning.

Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell. These
marine conditions will persist through early Fri. Looking ahead,
a low pressure may form along the monsoon trough several hundred
miles off northern Central America possibly bringing an increase
in winds an seas across the offshore forecast waters from 
Nicaragua to Guatemala during the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters
into the weekend. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much
of the open Pacific west of 115W.

Looking ahead, An area of low pressure is expected to form several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southeastern Mexico by this 
weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some 
gradual development of this system as it moves generally westward
at 5 to 10 kt. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a 
low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Farther 
west, another area of low pressure could form about a thousand 
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
in a couple of days. However, environmental conditions appear 
only marginally conducive for any development as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt.

$$
GR