000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N90W to 08N105W to 11N118W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 90W to the coast of Colombia. This convective activity is also affecting the Gulf of Panama and parts Panama and Costa Rica. Similar convection can also be found from 09N to 14N between 94W and 107W, and from 08N to 13N between 110W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered northwest of the area near 32N136W southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California with seas generally in the 3-5 ft range, except 5 to 7 ft N of Punta Eugenia. The high pressure will build into the area late this week, causing moderate to fresh NW winds across the waters W of Baja California Fri through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Sat night into Sun. This is expected to persist on Mon. Gulf of California: Winds will briefly increase to 15-20 kt in the northern part of the Gulf tonight with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail with seas below 3 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Tehuantepec region through Thu. Looking ahead, a low pressure may form several hundred miles S of the Tehuantepec region by Fri or Sat, possibly bringing an increase in winds an seas across the offshore waters zones of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: The most recent scatterometer pass shows fresh NE winds over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 10N87W. Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night with seas building to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell. These marine conditions will persist through early Fri. Looking ahead, a low pressure may form along the monsoon trough several hundred miles off northern Central America by Fri or Sat, possibly bringing an increase in winds an seas across the offshore forecast waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much of the open Pacific west of 115W, with the exception of seas to 8 ft in northerly swell N of 28N between 121W AND 125W. An altimeter pass confirmed the presence of these seas forecast to subside to less than 8 ft later today. A surface trough is analyzed within the monsoon trough and extends from 12N121W to 07N127W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the trough axis, particularly from 08N to 12N between 120W and 127W. The pressure gradient between the ridge over the north waters and the trough is producing an area of moderate to fresh winds from 11N to 15N between 120W and 125W based on scatterometer data. Higher winds of 25-30 kt are noted near the convective activity. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 kt. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Farther west, another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. $$ GR