000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261540
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low near 09N76W to 
09N90W to 08N100W to 11N110W to 10N117W. A surface trough extends
from 12N121W to 06N128W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
is near the northern end of the trough axis covering the waters 
from 08.5N to 10.5N between 117W and 123W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 10N E of 90W 
to the coast of Colombia, from 09N to 13N between 92W and 95W, 
and from 08N to 12N between 100W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered 
northwest of the area near 33N138W southeastward toward Socorro 
Island. With this, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja 
California with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell. Light
breezes and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California as 
well as across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas are 5
to 6 ft in SW swell off southern Mexico. Smoke from forest fires
and agricultural burning may be limiting visibility in the 
nearshore waters from Guerrero to Nayarit. 

The high pressure northwest of the region will build into the 
area late this week, causing moderate to fresh NW winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW
swell. 

Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected to pulse in the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected to continue elsewhere into the weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N of 15N W
of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough and west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much of the 
open Pacific west of 115W, with the exception of seas to 8 ft in
northerly swell N of 28N between 121W AND 125W. This will subside
to less than 8 ft by this afternoon. S to SW swell prevails east
of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and NW swell
up to 7 ft north of 20N and east of 125W through mid week as 
high pressure builds. High pressure will support fresh trade 
winds to the north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 5 to
7 ft range over much of this area will gradually subside through
the mid week. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form several
hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern 
Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system as it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.
Farther west, another area of low pressure is expected to form 
several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico later this
week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter as the 
system moves W or WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

$$
GR