000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260302
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low near 09N76W to 
08N89W to 12N114W. A surface trough extends from 12N118W to 
04N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either 
sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, E of 138W, as well as 
within the surface trough. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered northwest
of the area near 33N138W southeastward toward Socorro Island. 
With this, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja 
California with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell. Light
breezes and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California as
well as across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas are 
5 to 6 ft in SW swell off southern Mexico. Smoke from forest 
fires and agricultural burning may be limiting visibility in the 
nearshore waters from Guerrero to Nayarit. 

The high pressure northwest of the region will build into the 
area late this week, causing winds moderate to fresh NW winds. 
Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into 
Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into the 
weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure may form several hundred 
miles off southern Mexico coast by Fri or Sat, possibly allowing 
associated fresh swell to enter into the offshore zones of 
southern Mexico.. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell.
Showers and a few thunderstorms remain active north the monsoon 
trough beyond 120 nm of the coast from northern Costa Rica to
Guatemala.

Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected to pulse in the 
Gulf of Papagayo into Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected to continue elsewhere through Fri night. Looking ahead, 
low pressure may form several hundred miles off northern Central 
America by Fri or Sat, possibly allowing associated fresh swell 
to enter into the offshore zones of from Nicaragua to Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N138W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and 
west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much of the open Pacific 
west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W and south of 
15N, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. 

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and NW swell
up to 7 ft north of 20N and east of 125W through mid week as 
high pressure builds. High pressure will support fresh trade 
winds to the north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 5 to
7 ft range over much of this area will gradually subside through
the mid week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure may form 
along the monsoon trough east of 110W but beyond 250 nm off 
northern Central America and southern Mexico by Fri into Sat, 
then slowly drift primarily to the west.

$$
KONARIK