000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low near 09N77W to 
08N82W to 12N113W. A surface trough extends from 12N118W to 
05N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07N131W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either 
sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, as well as within the 
surface trough. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered northwest
of the area near 33N138W southeastward toward Socorro Island. 
With this, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off Baja 
California with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell. Light
breezes and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California as
well as across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas are 
5 to 6 ft in SW swell off southern Mexico. Smoke from forest 
fires and agricultural burning may be limiting visibility in the 
nearshore waters from Guerrero to Nayarit. 

Looking ahead, the high pressure west of the region will 
maintain moderate NW winds off Baja California through Wed. 
Winds over this area will increase modestly at the end of the 
week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week, then possibly increase 
to strong pulses on Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through the week. Looking ahead, low pressure 
may form several hundred miles off southern Mexico coast by Fri 
or Sat, possibly allowing associated fresh swell to enter into 
the offshore zones of southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell.
Showers and a few thunderstorms remain active north the monsoon 
trough beyond 120 nm of the coast from northern Costa Rica to
Guatemala.

Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected to pulse in the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected to continue elsewhere into Fri night. Looking ahead, low
pressure may form beyond 250 nm off northern Central America by 
Fri or Sat, possibly allowing associated fresh swell to enter 
into the offshore zones of from Nicaragua to Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N, anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N138W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and 
west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across much of the open Pacific 
west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W and south of 
15N, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. A very broad upper 
trough is over the tropical waters between 100W and 120W, 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and NW swell
up to 7 ft north of 20N and east of 125W by mid week as high 
pressure builds in the wake of a weak trough moving across the 
region. High pressure will support fresh trade winds to the north
of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 5 to 7 ft range over 
much of this area will gradually subside through the mid week. 
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure may form along the monsoon
trough east of 110W but beyond 250 nm off northern Central 
America and southern Mexico by Fri into Sat, then slowly drift
primarily to the west.

$$
ERA