000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242019
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N110W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 78W
and 80W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 10N
between 85W and 90W, and from 10N to 13N between 95W and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure centered west
of the area near 35N145W southeastward toward Socorro Island.
Latest observations indicated this pattern is supporting gentle
to moderate NW winds off Baja California with 4 to 6 ft seas in a
mix of SW and NW swell. Light breezes and slight seas are noted
in the Gulf of California. Farther south, a scatterometer
satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Light breezes are noted 
elsewhere across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas are
5 to 6 ft in SW swell off southern Mexico. A few showers and 
thunderstorms are active in the waters off western Oaxaca beyond 
150 nm. Smoke from forest fires and agricultural burning may be
limiting visibility in the nearshore waters from Guerrero to
Nayarit. 

For the forecast, the high pressure west of the region will 
maintain moderate NW winds off Baja California through the middle
of the week. Winds over this area will increase modestly at the 
end of the week, as high pressure builds in the wake of a weak
trough moving across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf
of California through mid week. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week, 
then possibly increasing to strong pulses by Thu. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. Looking 
ahead, low pressure may form beyond 250 nm off southern Mexico by
Fri or Sat, possibly allowing associated fresh swell to enter 
into the offshore zones of southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell.
Showers and a few thunderstorms remain active north the monsoon 
trough beyond 120 nm of the coast from northern Costa Rica to
Guatemala.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds are expected 
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue elsewhere into
Fri. Looking ahead, low pressure may form beyond 250 nm off 
northern Central America by Fri or Sat, possibly allowing 
associated fresh swell to enter into the offshore zones of from 
Nicaragua to Guatemala. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N, anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 35N145W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west
of 120W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much of the open Pacific west
of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W and south of 15N, 
where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. An upper trough is digging
across the waters north of 20N and west of 135W, possibly 
bringing a few showers to that area. A very broad upper trough is
over the tropical waters between 105W and 115W, supporting
clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the 
monsoon trough east of 115W.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and NW swell
to at least 7 ft north of 25N and east of 125W by mid week as
high pressure builds in the wake of a weak trough moving across 
the region. High pressure will support fresh trade winds to the 
north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 7 to 8 ft range 
over much of this area will gradually subside through the mid 
week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure may form along the
monsoon trough east of 110W but beyond 250 nm off northern 
Central America and southern Mexico by Fri into Sat, then slowly 
drift to the WNW parallel to the coastline.

$$
Christensen