000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241538
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N110W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N110W to 10N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N 
east of 90W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh winds west of Baja 
California. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across 
the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open 
waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure west of the region will maintain
moderate NW winds off Baja California through the middle of the 
week. Winds over this area will increase modestly at the end of 
the week. Fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through mid week, then possibly increasing to strong 
pulses by Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds are expected 
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much of the 
open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W 
and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds 
to the north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 7 to 8 ft
range over much of this area will gradually subside through the 
mid week.

$$
SK/Christensen