000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240755
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N80W to 11N112W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N119W to 10N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N 
east of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N 
between 95W and 111W and from 07N to 13N between 124W and 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh winds west of Baja 
California. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across 
the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open 
waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh winds W of the Baja California peninsula
will diminish slightly through the middle of the week. Winds 
over this area will increase modestly at the end of the week. 
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds are expected 
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much of the 
open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W 
and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds 
to the north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in the 7 to 8 ft
range over much of this area will gradually subside through the 
early part of the week.

$$
KONARIK