000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232011
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to 11N112W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N118W to 09N130W. It resumes from 10N134W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 03N to 09N east of 84W, from 05N to 10N between 87W and 
106W, and from 07N to 12N between 122W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh winds 
west of Baja California. Moderate to fresh are also noted over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range west of
the Baja California peninsula and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds W of the Baja 
California peninsula will diminish slightly through the middle of
the week. Winds over this area will increase modestly at the end
of the week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through the upcoming week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo,
with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell,
except 6 to 8 ft over the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh E winds are expected to pulse in the 
Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week. Light to gentle
winds are expected to continue elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and 
west of 125W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across much of the open Pacific 
west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails east of 120W and south of 
15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds 
to the north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Seas in the 7 to 9 ft
range over much of this area will gradually subside through the
early part of the week.

$$
AL