000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 08N93W to 13N109W to 
09N117W. The ITCZ continues from 09N117W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E 
of 84W, and from 04N to 09N between 89W and 100W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 100W and 
115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 09N between 128W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong 
winds west of Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds are 
noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 
7-9 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 6-8 ft over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will continue
W of Baja California this weekend, with seas of 8 to 9 ft 
subsiding through Sun. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf
of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in 
S to SW swell, except 6 to 8 ft in the waters off Ecuador and 
southern Colombia as well as over the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell 
will gradually diminish across the offshore forecast waters this 
evening. Fresh E winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo into the middle of next week. Light to gentle winds are 
expected to continue elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across 
much of the open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell prevails 
east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft 
range. 

For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds 
to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas 
in the 7 to 9 ft range over much of this area will gradually 
subside this weekend.

$$
AL