000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221424
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N93W to 12N109W to
08N117W. The ITCZ continues from 08N117W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of
84W, and from 04N to 09N between 87W and 104W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 109W and 118W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 09N between 129W and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong 
winds west of Baja California. Fresh to strong winds are pulsing
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft 
range west of the Baja California peninsula, 6-8 ft over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will continue
W of Baja California this weekend along with seas of 8 to 10 ft.
Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downwind of the Gulf
of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in 
S to SW swell, except 6 to 8 ft in the waters off Ecuador and 
southern Colombia as well as over the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell 
will gradually diminish over the offshore forecast waters today.
Fresh E winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into
the middle of next week. Light to gentle winds are expected to 
continue elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across 
much of the open Pacific west of 115W. S to SW swell is prevails
east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft 
range. 

For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh trade winds 
to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas 
in the 7 to 9 ft range over much of this area will gradually 
subside this weekend.

$$
AL