000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220748
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 11N104W to 09N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of both 
boundaries.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong 
winds west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 8-11 ft 
range west of Baja California Norte and 7-9 ft west of Baja 
California Sur. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere over the 
open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds will continue
W of Baja California this weekend along with seas of 8 to 11 ft.
Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds are expected to 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with 
gentle to moderate S winds south of the monsoon trough. The
exception is in the Papagayo region where some moderate east
winds are pulsing. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW 
swell, except 7 to 9 ft in the waters off Ecuador and southern 
Colombia.

For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell 
will gradually diminish the offshore forecast waters today. Fresh
E winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into the 
middle of next week. Light to gentle winds are expected to 
continue elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 115W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across 
much of the open Pacific west of 115W, except for north of 25N 
and east of 125W, where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. S to SW
swell is prevails east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are 
in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will support fresh 
trade winds to the north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas will
build to 8 to 9 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ. 
Little change is expected through early next week.

$$
KONARIK