000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212041
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 12N107W to 09N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 86W 
and 92W, and from 07N to 10N between 94W and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over
the Gulf of California is supporting fresh winds west of Baja 
California Norte and moderate winds west pf Baja California Sur.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the forecast 
waters. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range west of Baja California 
Norte and 7-9 ft west of Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja 
California Norte will spread S to the waters offshore Baja 
California Sur into the weekend. Seas of 8 ft or greater will
prevail west Baja California through Sat night in mixed NW and 
SW swell. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds are 
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with 
gentle to moderate S winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
in the 6 to 8 ft range in S to SW swell, except 8 to 9 ft in the
waters off Ecuador and southern Colombia.

For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell 
will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters into Sat, 
then subside. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected to pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend through early next week. Light 
to gentle winds are expected to continue into early next week 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 115W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across 
much of the open Pacific west of 115W, except for north of 25N 
and east of 125W, where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. S to SW
swell is prevails east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are 
in the 6 to 8 ft range. 

For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will support fresh 
trade winds to the north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas will
build to 8 to 9 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ. S to
SW swell south of 15N and east of 115W will subside tonight. 
Little change is expected into early next week.

$$
AL