000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212041 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 12N107W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 86W and 92W, and from 07N to 10N between 94W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting fresh winds west of Baja California Norte and moderate winds west pf Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range west of Baja California Norte and 7-9 ft west of Baja California Sur. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja California Norte will spread S to the waters offshore Baja California Sur into the weekend. Seas of 8 ft or greater will prevail west Baja California through Sat night in mixed NW and SW swell. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in S to SW swell, except 8 to 9 ft in the waters off Ecuador and southern Colombia. For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters into Sat, then subside. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend through early next week. Light to gentle winds are expected to continue into early next week elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 115W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much of the open Pacific west of 115W, except for north of 25N and east of 125W, where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. S to SW swell is prevails east of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will support fresh trade winds to the north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft over much of the area north of the ITCZ. S to SW swell south of 15N and east of 115W will subside tonight. Little change is expected into early next week. $$ AL