555 
AXPZ20 KNHC 210720
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0715 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N82W to a 1009 mb low 
pressure near 10N98W to 10N108W. The ITCZ axis continues from 
10N108W to 09N129W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 100W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh NW winds are currently west of Baja California Norte, where
seas are 8 to 10 ft. Moderate N winds are offshore Baja 
California Sur. Moderate SW breezes and slight seas prevail in 
the Gulf of California. Farther south, gentle W to NW winds and 6
to 8 ft seas in S swell are noted.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds west of Baja 
California Norte will spread S to the waters offshore Baja 
California Sur into the weekend. In the Gulf of California, some 
fresh wind is expected in northern areas today. Seas will 
increase west of Baja California today in mixed NW and SW swell. 
Fresh northerly winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere into early next week.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

N of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, with 
moderate S winds to the south. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in S to SW 
swell, except 8 to 9 ft in the waters off Ecuador and southern 
Colombia.

For the forecast, long period cross-equatorial southerly swell 
will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters into Sat, 
then subside. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected to pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend through early next week. Light 
to gentle winds are expected to continue into early next week 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 
15N. The pressure gradient between it and comparatively lower 
pressure in the deep tropics supports fresh NE trade winds north
of the ITCZ and west of 130W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across much of 
the open Pacific west of 115W, except for north of 25N and east 
of 125W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. S to SW swell is evident east
of 120W and south of 15N, where seas are averaging 8 to 9 ft. A 
weak low pressure area is centered well south of southern Mexico 
near 10N98W.

For the forecast, reinforcing high pressure will allow the area
of fresh trade winds to the north of the ITCZ to expand in areal
coverage today to cover the area west of 115W. This will cause 
the area of 8 to 10 ft seas currently west of Baja California to 
spread westward. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft over much of the 
area, except 10 to 12 ft north of 22N and east of 125W. S to SW 
swell south of 15N and east of 115W will subside tonight. Little
change is expected into early next week.

$$
KONARIK