000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180353
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 08N79W to
09N90W to 09N105W and to 08N114W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N120W and to
06N130W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 08N
between 88W-90W and within 60 nm south of trough between 90W- 
91W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NW of the area is dominating waters
offshore Baja California, creating moderate to fresh NW winds. 
These winds will continue through mid-week. Fresh to locally 
strong northwest winds are expected primarily north of Cabo San 
Lazaro this evening and into Tue as the pressure gradient 
tightens some. Seas will build to 5-7 ft. Winds will further 
increase to fresh to strong speeds mainly west of central and 
northern Baja California beginning late Thu as stronger high 
pressure builds southeastward across the waters west of Baja 
California. South to southwest swell will build seas as it 
propagates across the waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning on 
Tue. Looking ahead for later in the week, a trough or low may 
form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

For the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds with seas of
3 to 4 feet are expected through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate east winds in the Papagayo region will continue to 
decrease today. These will pulse to moderate again Tue, before 
diminishing again through late week. Seas of 5-7 ft will change 
little into late week. Long-period cross equatorial southerly 
swell will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters
through Fri night, then begin to subside on Sat. Seas of 6-8 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will begin to build
to 8 ft or higher on Wed as additional pulses of long-period 
southwest swell begin to move through these waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure continues to dominate the northern waters. This is
producing a large area of moderate to fresh trades N of the 
ITCZ, with seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are 
noted elsewhere, with seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to
a southerly swell component. Long-period cross equatorial 
southerly swell over the waters south of about 09N and east of 
about 111W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands will be 
replaced by a new set of long-period southerly swell beginning 
Tue. This new set of southerly swell will propagate through these
same waters through late Wed night, then begin to decay through 
Fri night. Before doing so, it is expected to raise seas to a 
peak of 10 or 11 ft over the far south-central waters west of 
the Galapagos Islands.

$$
Aguirre