000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 09N79W to 08N100W to 08N115W to 09N130W. It then transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 78W- 80W and within 60 nm of trough between 104W- 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered NW of the area is dominating waters offshore Baja California, creating moderate to fresh NW winds, with a localized area of strong winds near Cabo San Lucas. These winds will continue into mid-week. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are expected primarily north of Cabo San Lazaro this evening and into Tue as the pressure gradient tightens some. Seas will build to 5-7 ft. Winds will further increase to fresh to strong speeds mainly west of central and northern Baja California beginning late Thu as stronger high pressure builds southeastward across the waters west of Baja California. South to southwest swell will build seas as it propagates across the waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning on Tue. Looking ahead for later in the week, a trough or low may form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gulf of California: Generally moderate SE winds will prevail into late week, then transition to SW. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will gradually increase through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate E winds in the Papagayo region will continue to decrease today. These will pulse to moderate again Tue, before diminishing again into late week. Seas of 5-7 ft will change little through mid-week. Long-period cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters over the next several days. Seas of 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight. Additional pulses of long-period southwest swell will reach the area by mid- week building seas to 8 ft or higher. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure continues to dominate the northern waters. This is producing a large area of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ, with seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere, with seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to a southerly swell component. Long-period cross equatorial southerly swell over the waters south of about 10N and east of about 111W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands will decay late tonight, but additional pulses of long-period southwest swell will begin to propagate through these same waters by mid- week building seas to a maximum height of 10 or 11 ft west of the Galapagos Islands. $$ KONARIK