000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 09N83W to 08N100W to 10N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N134W to beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 10N between 92W and 111W, from 10N to 13N between 98W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 125W and 131W, and from 04N to 07N between 130W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. A small area of fresh to strong W-NW winds is noted near Cabo San Lucas based on a scatterometer pass. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening into Tue as the pressure gradient tightens some. Seas will build to 5-7 ft. Winds will further increase to fresh to strong speeds mainly west of central and northern Baja California beginning late Thu as stronger high pressure builds southeastward across the waters west of Baja California. NW swell, with building seas of 8-9 ft, will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Gulf of California: Winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt across the northern part of the Gulf tonight with seas building to 4-6 ft. then, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail across the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent scatterometer pass shows fresh to strong NE-E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 10N87W. Seas in that area are peaking to 8 ft in mixed wind waves and southerly swell. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected tonight and Mon. Long period cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters over the next several days. Seas will build to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight into Mon, then seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Mon night. Additional pulses of long period SW swell will reach the area by Wed building seas to 8 ft or higher. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A rather broad surface ridge is the main feature over the northern forecast waters. It is anchored by a 1029 mb high center that is located N of the area near 37N142W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is presently allowing for mainly moderate to locally fresh trades from 12N to 16N between 125W-135W, with peak seas of 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere with seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to a southerly swell component. Long period cross equatorial southerly swell will also impact the waters S of 10N and E of 110W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands, by Mon morning. A surface trough is within the ITCZ, and extends from 13N129W TO 06N131W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 125W and 131W, and near the southern end of the trough axis. This trough will continue to move westward over the next 36-48 hours. $$ GR