000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500FROM 13N TO 14N  UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 08N78W to 
08N90W to 10N110W to 10N125W. The ITCZ streches from 06N132W to 
beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection can be found from 08N to 10N between 84W and 86W, 
from 05N to 10N between 92W and 110W, from 10N to 13N between 
100W and 104W, and near 06N117W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. Fresh
to locally strong winds are expected Mon evening into Tue as the
pressure gradient tightens some. Seas will build to 5-7 ft. Seas 
are 3-4 ft in the Gulf of California, except for higher seas of 
4-6 ft in the northern part of the Gulf, where fresh to locally 
strong southwest winds are occurring. 

The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure combined with  
relatively lower pressure across southeastern Mexico and near 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is presently inducing moderate to 
fresh northwest to north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
These winds will become light and variable during today as the 
gradient weakens. 

As for the forecast, the winds west of Baja California will
change little through Wed, then increase to fresh to strong 
speeds mainly west of central and northern Baja California
beginning late Thu as stronger high pressure builds southeastward 
across the waters west of Baja California. The fresh to locally 
strong southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California will 
continue through late today. NW swell, with building seas of 8-9
ft, will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia Tue 
night into Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over the Gulf and
Papagayo and vicinity waters. Seas in that area are peaking to 8
ft. These winds will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon, 
with seas subsiding to just below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds 
are noted elsewhere, with seas of 5-7 ft due to a long-period 
south to southwest swell. These winds are forecast to change 
little through Wed. The south to southwest swell will continue 
through Thu night as extensive pulses of southern hemispheric 
swell energy cross the Equator. Seas will build to 8 ft between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight into Mon. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A rather broad surface ridge is the main feature over the northern
forecast waters. It is anchored by a 1029 mb high center that is
located N of the area near 38N142W. The pressure gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is presently allowing for mainly moderate to locally fresh trades
from 11N to 16N between 125W-135W, with peak seas of 8 ft. Gentle
to moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere with seas in the 
range of 6-7 ft mainly due to a southerly swell component.

A surface trough is within the ITCZ, and extends from 13N127W to
05N130W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N E of 
trough to 125W. This trough will continue to move westward over 
the next 48 hours. 

$$
GR