000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160854 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 16 2021 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia to 08N78W to 07N90W to 10N105W to 10N112W and to low pressure near 10N126W 1011 mb. ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm south of the trough between 90W-96W, and also within 60 nm of the trough between 110W-113W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 120W- 126W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 120W-126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected A somewhat tight gradient between the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure that extends to the western Gulf and relatively lower pressure across southeastern Mexico and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is presently inducing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will become light and variable during Sun as the gradient weakens. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California along with seas of 5-6 ft. Seas are 3-4 ft in the Gulf of California, except for higher seas of 4-6 ft in the northern part of the Gulf, where fresh to locally strong southwest winds are occurring. As for the forecast, the winds west of Baja California will change little through Wed, then increase to fresh to strong speeds mainly west of central and northern Baja California beginning late Thu as stronger high pressure builds southeastward across the waters west of Baja California. The fresh to locally strong southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California will continue through late Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are over the Gulf and Papagayo and vicinity waters. Seas in that area are peaking to 9 ft. These winds will diminish to fresh speeds Sun afternoon and seas there will subside to just below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with seas of 5-7 ft due to a long- period south to southwest swell. These winds are will forecast to change little through Wed. The south to southwest swell will continue through Thu night as extensive pulses of southern hemispheric swell energy cross the Equator. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A rather broad surface ridge is the main feature over this part of the area controlling the prevailing wind regime. It is anchored by a strong 1033 mb high center that is well northwest of the area near 38N146W. A 1011 mb low is along the monsoon trough near 10N126W. The pressure gradient between the low and the high pressure is allowing for fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the waters within 180 nm of the low in the northern semicircle, with peak seas of 8 or 9 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds noted elsewhere over these waters, with seas in the range of 6-7 ft mainly due to s southerly swell component. As for the forecast, the aforementioned low will track to near 130W by early Sun evening before it weakens to a trough. By then, its the fresh to strong winds are expected to have diminished slightly, with seas to around 8 ft. The gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere are expected to continue through late Sun night, then increase slightly within 300 nm north of the ITCZ through Tue and increase over most of the area through late in the week as stronger high pressure builds over the area. Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas at 7-9 ft across the southern waters through Thu night. $$ Aguirre