000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152054
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 09N84W to 10N110W to a
1012 mb low near 10N125W to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N129W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is from 04N-13N and east of 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
area, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate northerly winds are noted west
of Baja California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of Baja California, 
and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds prevail.

Looking ahead, fresh southwesterly winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California through Sun as a pair of surface 
troughs move across the area. Moderate NW winds are expected 
west of Baja California Sun night through mid-week, increasing to
fresh by the end of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest scatterometer data depicts a small area of fresh to 
strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, while gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in long period SW 
swell, except 6-9 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through mid-week. Southerly swell will continue
across the forecast waters through Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed 
swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds and highest seas are 
found in the proximity of a 1012 mb surface low, centered near 
10N125W.

For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail this weekend, with trades locally to fresh at times. 
Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas at 7-9 ft
across the southern waters through Wed. 
 
$$
ERA