000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 08N84W to 10N123W to 
08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm either 
side of these boundaries between 77W-128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this morning, becoming moderate to fresh this
evening, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate northerly winds are noted 
west of Baja California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of Baja 
California, and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds prevail.

Looking ahead, fresh southwesterly winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California this weekend as a pair of surface 
troughs move through the area. Moderate to fresh NW winds are 
expected west of Baja California Sun night through mid-week. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data this morning depicts a small area of fresh to
strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, while gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in long 
period SW swell, except 6-8 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere through mid-week. Southerly swell will continue across
the forecast waters through Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed 
swell. The highest seas are found south of 10N between 100W and
120W from large cross-equatorial S to SW swell.

For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail this weekend, with trades locally to fresh at times. 
Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas at 7-9 ft
across the southern waters through Wed. 
 
$$
ERA