000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150303
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N90W to 10N113W to 
09N118W. The ITCZ continues from 09N118W to 07N127W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to
08N between 83W and 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 104W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico will continue to support 
strong northerly gap winds in the Tehuantepec region through Sat
morning. Seas are to 8 ft with these winds. Northerly gentle to 
moderate winds are noted west of Baja California, with light 
winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of Baja 
California, and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds prevail.

Looking ahead, fresh southwesterly winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California this weekend as a pair of surface 
troughs move through the area. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A small area of fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are 4 to 5 ft in long period SW swell, except 6-7 ft in the 
Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere. Southerly swell will continue across the 
forecast waters through Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed 
swell. The highest seas are found south of 10N between 100W and
120W from large cross-equatorial S to SW swell.

For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail through the weekend, with trades locally to fresh 
at times. Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas
to 8-9 ft across the southern waters through Wed. 
 
$$
Mundell