000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142011
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low near 10N75W to 
09N84W to 1010 mb low near 10N120W to 07N135W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is south of 09N and east of 90W. Scattered 
moderate convection prevails from 03N-14N between 97W-129W and 
along the ITCZ west of 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support 
strong northerly gap winds in the Tehuantepec region through Sat.
Seas will build to 8-10 ft with these winds. Northerly gentle to
moderate winds are noted west of Baja California, with light 
winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of Baja 
California, and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
light and variable winds prevail.

Looking ahead, fresh southwesterly winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California this weekend as a pair of surface 
troughs move through the area. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Papagayo region, while 
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in
long period SW swell, except 6-8 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region during the overnight hours through Sat. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Southerly swell will 
continue across the forecast waters through Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed 
swell. The highest seas are found west of 125W and south of 11N.

For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail through the weekend, with trades locally to fresh 
at times. Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas
to 8 ft across the southern waters today. Reinforcing southerly 
swell east of 120W this weekend will maintain seas to 5-7 ft 
south of 10N and east of 120W. 
 
$$
ERA