000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141519
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low near 10N76W to 09N84W
to 1009 mb low near 10N118W to 08N123W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is south of 10N and east of 84W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 04N-13N between 97W-128W and along the
ITCZ west of 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support 
strong northerly gap winds in the Tehuantepec region through Sat 
morning. Seas will build to 8-10 ft with these winds. Northerly 
gentle to moderate winds are noted west of Baja California, with 
light winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of
Baja California, and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. 
Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are possible in the  
Tehuantepec region through Sat. Fresh southwesterly winds will 
pulse in the northern Gulf of California this weekend as a pair 
of surface troughs move through the area. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Papagayo region, while 
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in
long period SW swell, except 6-7 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region during the overnight hours through Sat. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Southerly swell will 
continue across the forecast waters through Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed 
swell. The highest seas are found west of 125W and south of 11N.

For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail through the weekend, with trades locally to fresh 
at times. Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas
to 8 ft across the southern waters today. Reinforcing southerly 
swell east of 120W this weekend will maintain seas to 5-7 ft 
south of 10N and east of 120W. 
 
$$
ERA