000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N92W to low pressure
1010 mb near 11N117W. The ITCZ continues from 11N117W to 07N129W
to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03.5N
to 08N east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the trough axis between 91W and 104W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 118W
and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will support strong northerly
gap winds in the Tehuantepec region through Sat morning. Seas 
will build to 9-11 ft with these winds. Northerly gentle to 
moderate winds are noted west of Baja California, with light 
winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft west of Baja 
California, and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
light and variable winds prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are possible in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sat. Fresh southwesterly winds will pulse
in the northern Gulf of California this weekend as a pair of 
surface troughs move through the area. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, while gentle 
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in long 
period SW swell, except 6-7 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region during the overnight hours through Sat. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Southerly swell will 
continue across the forecast waters through Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed 
swell. The highest seas are found west of 125W and south of 11N.

For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail through the weekend, with trades locally to fresh 
at times. Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas
to 8 ft across the southern waters today. Reinforcing southerly 
swell east of 120W this weekend will maintain seas to 5-7 ft 
south of 10N and east of 120W. 
 
$$
Mundell