000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140245
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure in the 
Gulf of Mexico will support gale force winds in the Tehuantepec 
region overnight. Seas will build to 9-11 ft with these winds. 
Winds will diminish Fri afternoon with fresh to strong northerly
winds persisting into Sat. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N101W to 10N108W. 
The ITCZ continues from 10N108W to 10N113W to 07N118W to 09N129W
to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 
11N between 91W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Along Baja California, northerly gentle to moderate winds are 
noted with light winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 6 
ft in NW swell, and 2-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere,
light and variable winds prevail.

For the forecast, fresh southwesterly winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California this weekend as a pair of surface 
troughs move through the area. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, while gentle 
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in long 
period SW swell, except 6-7 ft in the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Papagayo
region during the overnight hours through Sat. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Southerly swell will reach the 
southern forecast waters on Fri, with larger reinforcing swell 
expected this weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle
to moderate trade winds dominate the open waters of the tropical
eastern Pacific, along with seas in the 6-7 ft range in mixed 
swell. The highest seas are found west of 125W and south of 11N.

For the forecast, tranquil marine conditions and moderate trades
will prevail through the weekend, with trades locally to fresh 
at times. Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas
to 7 ft across the southern waters through Fri. Reinforcing
southerly swell east of 120W this weekend will maintain seas to 
5-7 ft south of 10N and east of 120W.
 
$$
Mundell