000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N92W to a 1008 mb low near 11N113W to 08N120W. The ITCZ extends from 08N120W to 07N129W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 78W to 84W, from 05N to 13N between 87W to 97W, and from 06N to 14N between 101W to 111W. Scattered moderate convection is within 125 nm of the ITCZ between 122W to 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low pressure of Andres has dissipated into a trough near 115W and will continue to drift away from the Revillagigedo Islands. Along Baja California, northerly gentle to moderate winds are noted with light winds across the Gulf of California. Seas range 5-6 ft in this area with 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail. Hazy or smokey conditions may be evident near the coast south of Cabo Corrientes to the Tehuantepec region, but a slight southerly component to the winds along with afternoon sea breezes are probably keeping most of these conditions confined to onshore for now. For the forecast, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California this weekend. Winds are expected to increase to fresh to strong by Sat night as a trough moves through the area with seas to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will subside in the waters west of Baja California through Thu, with another set arriving Sat. Farther south, building high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico may allow strong to near gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region Thu through Sat with building seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell, except 6 ft offshore of Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight hours through the rest of the week and into Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to subside by tonight. Another set is expected to arrive by Fri, and then a larger, reinforcing set this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The trough that is the remnants of Andres is located SSW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 115W. Seas associated with this system have subsided. Elsewhere, a broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate trades, locally fresh, dominate the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell producing seas of 6-7 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters north of 25N between 125W and 135W. Seas are reaching 8 ft west of 120W and south of 12N and along the equator between 110W to 120W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-7 ft in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, fairly tranquil marine conditions with moderate trades will prevail through the remainder of the week and weekend, along with mainly 5-7 ft seas. Southerly swell crossing the equator will maintain seas to 8 ft across the southern waters through Fri. A reinforcing set of southerly swell will east of 120W this weekend which will build seas to 7-9 ft south of 10N and east of 120W. $$ AReinhart/Lewitsky