547 AXPZ20 KNHC 112047 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N100W to 14N108W, then resumes from 12N112W to 08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to 03N135W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 77W and 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent altimeter satellite pass confirmed seas are still reaching 6 to 7 ft in the waters around the Revillagigedo Islands. This is related to short period swell originating from what is now the remnant low of Andres, centered farther south. Moderate NE winds are noted across the archipelago currently. Farther north, light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell are noted off the coast of Baja California under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge dominating the waters north of 20N. Light breezes and slight seas are evident across the Gulf of California as well. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are evident off the coast of southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas in S swell. Hazy or smokey condition may be evident near the coast south of Cabo Corrientes, but a slight southerly component to the winds along with afternoon sea breezes are probably keeping most of these conditions confined to onshore for now. For the forecast, the seas around the Revillagigedo Islands will subside through early Wed as the remnant low of Andres dissipates farther south. Elsewhere, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California this weekend, increasing to fresh to strong Sat night as a trough moves through the area. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will subside in the waters west of Baja California through Thu, with another set arriving Sat. Farther south, building high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico may allow strong gap winds in the Tehuantepec region Thu through early Sat with building seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell, except 5-7 offshore of Ecuador and to 7 ft in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight hours through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will impact the waters through today before subsiding, with another set arriving Fri, with a larger, reinforcing set this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Andres is centered near 15.8N 111.9W moving westward at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Associated seas are estimated at 8 ft. No organized deep convection is near the exposed center. This low pressure will likely further weaken into a trough over the next day or so, before dissipating altogether by late in the week. Elsewhere, a broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ to 12N and west of 120W, and near the remnant low of Andres. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell producing seas of 7-8 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters north of 25N between 125W and 135W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-7 ft in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell, reaching 8 ft from 05N to 15N west of 135W. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ to 12N west of 135W with seas to 8 ft in mixed swell persisting through mid week. The northerly swell north of 25N between 125W and 135W will subside through Wed morning. Southerly swell crossing the equator will help to maintain seas to 8 ft across the southern waters through the early part of the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are anticipated elsewhere for the remainder of the week into the weekend. $$ Christensen