000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110258 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Andres is centered near 15.9N 110.3W at 11/0300 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No organized deep convection is near the exposed center, however isolated moderate convection is noted between 90 nm and 240 nm in the southeast semicircle. Andres will become a remnant low Tue morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northwest Colombia near 10N75W to 06N83W to 11N104W, then resumes from 12N112W to 08N123W. The ITCZ continues from 08N123W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 97W and 99W, and from 08N to 10N between 102W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 114W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 18N. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail offshore of Baja California, with gentle to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California, except fresh in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft west of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, in a moderate NW swell. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere, higher near the outer fringes of Tropical Depression Andres. For the forecast, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California through tonight, and then again this weekend, increasing to fresh to strong Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will continue to dominate the waters west of Baja California through Tue, with another set arriving this weekend. A strong gap wind event is possible in the Tehuantepec region Thu through early Sat with building seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell, except 5-7 offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight hours through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will impact the waters through Tue before subsiding, with another set arriving Fri, with a larger, reinforcing set this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico and just outside of the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell producing seas of 7-10 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of 22N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through Tue. Northerly swell will linger north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as across the west-central waters, decaying by midweek. Southerly swell crossing the equator will help to maintain seas to 8 ft across the southern waters through the early part of the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the week into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky