000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly downgraded Tropical Depression Andres is centered near 16.0N 109.8W at 10/2100 UTC moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Andres is a sheared tropical cyclone with scattered moderate to strong convection within 240 nm in the east semicircle, with the strongest convection occurring in the NE quadrant. Associated seas are 8-10 ft with the highest in the northeast quadrant. Andres will move to 16.5N 110.2W by Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 16.8N 111.1W by Tue afternoon, 17.0N 112.2W on Wed morning, 16.9N 113.5W by Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northwest Colombia near 08N78W to 08N91W to 10N104W, then resumes from 12N112W to 08N123W. The ITCZ continues from 08N123W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 78W and 87W and from 06N to 12N between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 100 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 112W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 80 nm of the ITCZ between 131W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. Associated marine conditions are expected to remain along or just outside of the offshore waters, while convection will remain across these outer waters through tonight. A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 18N. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail offshore of Baja California, with gentle to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California, except fresh in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, in a moderate NW swell. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere, higher near the outer fringes of Tropical Depression Andres. For the forecast, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California through this evening and return to gentle by tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will continue to dominate the waters west of Baja California through tonight and begin to decay by Tue. A strong gap wind event is possible in the Tehuantepec region Thu through Fri night. Seas could build to 8-10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse nightly across the Papagayo region tonight through the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will move into the waters through Tue before subsiding, with another set arriving Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico and just outside of the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell producing seas of 7-10 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of 23N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the waters W of 120W in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through Tue. Northerly swell will linger north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as across the west- central waters, decaying by midweek. Southerly swell crossing the equator will help to maintain seas to 8 ft across the southern waters through the early part of the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the week. $$ Lewitsky/AReinhart