000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Andres is centered near 15.4N 109.4W at 10/1500 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Andres is a sheared tropical cyclone with scattered moderate to strong convection within 230 nm in the east semicircle, with the strongest convection occurring in the NE quadrant with additional scattered moderate to strong from 10N to 15N between 106W and 109W. Associated seas are 8-12 ft with the highest in the northeast quadrant. Andres will weaken to a tropical depression this afternoon, become a remnant low Tue afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northwest Colombia near 08N78W to 08N93W to 12N105W, then resumes from 12N112W to 07N128W. The ITCZ continues from 07N128W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 77W and 82W and from 06N to 11N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 112W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 80 nm of the ITCZ between 132W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. Associated marine conditions are expected to remain along or just outside of the offshore waters, while convection will remain across these outer waters through today. A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 18N. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail offshore of Baja California, with gentle to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California, except fresh in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft west of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, in a moderate NW swell. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere, higher near the outer fringes of Tropical Storm Andres. For the forecast, fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California this morning and return to gentle by tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell will continue to dominate the waters west of Baja California through Tue. A strong gap wind event is possible in the Tehuantepec region Thu through Fri night. Seas could build to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to locally strong during the overnight hours through Wed. It is expected to pulse fresh to strong again by Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will move into the waters through Tue before subsiding, with another set arriving Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico and just outside of the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W, except fresh to strong north of 26N between 123W and 132W due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell producing seas of 7-10 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of 23N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the waters W of 120W in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through the early part of the week. Northerly swell will linger north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as across the west-central waters, decaying by the middle of the week. Southerly swell crossing the equator will help to maintain seas to 8 ft across the southern waters through the early part of the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the week. $$ Lewitsky/AReinhart