000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Andres is centered near 14.0N 108.5W at 2100 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the eastern North Pacific basin. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 210 nm across the NE and 420 nm across the SE quadrants, with scattered moderate to strong convection within 210 nm in the W semicircle. Andres has a brief period of time today and tonight for some very modest strengthening, before it reaches more stable air and strong wind shear, and should then weaken back to a tropical depression by Monday afternoon, and become a remnant low Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure 1008 mb over northern Colombia near 09.5N75W to 05.5N85W to 10N105W, then resumes SW of T.S. Andres near 11N111W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 09.5N between 77W and 92W, from 10N to 14N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 111W and 120W, and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. Associated marine conditions are expected to remain just outside of the offshore waters, while convection will remain across these outer waters through Mon. A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 17N. Light to gentle winds prevail offshore of Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters, except 6-9 ft in NW swell across the waters off of Baja California Norte. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the middle of the week, except a pulse of fresh to strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California late tonight. A gap wind event is possible in the Tehuantepec region Thu and Thu night, and may reach 30 kt. The NW swell offshore of Baja California will linger into Tue before diminishing significantly. Haze from agricultural fires may spread offshore and reduce visibilities slightly at times during the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell.. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight hours through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will move into the waters early Sun through early Tue before subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Andres, located southwest of southern Mexico and just outside of the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell producing seas of 7-11 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of 24N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the waters W of 120W in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through the early part of the week, except fresh to strong north of 25N between 120W and 132W for the remainder of this weekend due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as across the west-central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell crossing the equator today will help to build seas to 8 ft across the southern waters through Sun. $$ Stripling