000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 13.8N 107.7W at 09/0900 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 270 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low, with scattered moderate to strong convection within 150 nm in the south semicircle of the low. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm this afternoon, then weaken back to a tropical depression Monday afternoon, becoming a remnant low early Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N74W to 07N78W to 09N86W to 09N96W to low pressure near 13.5N107.5W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 05N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 77W and 81W, from 07N to 13N between 98W and 103W, within 150 nm southeast of the monsoon trough between 107W and 113W, and from 03N to 07N between 124W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression One-E, located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 18N. Light to gentle winds prevail offshore of Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters, except 7-9 ft in NW swell across the waters off of Baja California Norte. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the middle of the week, except a pulse of fresh to strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California late tonight. A gap wind event is possible in the Tehuantepec region Thu and Thu night. The NW swell offshore of Baja California will linger into early next week. Haze from agricultural fires may spread offshore and reduce visibilities slightly at times. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell.. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight hours through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will move into the waters Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression One-E, located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W, locally strong. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of 7-10 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of 24N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the waters W of 120W in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through the early part of the week, except fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 132W for the remainder of this weekend due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N through the early part of the week as well as across the west-central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell crossing the equator today will help to build seas to 8 ft across the southern waters. $$ Lewitsky