000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 13N107W this evening, moving W-NW at 6 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 100W and 108W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft are occurring near the center, mainly on the eastern side. Satellite images indicate that the showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. Conditions are conducive for further development of this system over the next day or so, and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on Sun. In 2 days or so, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable as the system moves west- northwestward. This system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N74W to 07N79W to 09N87W to 07N93W to low pressure near 13N107W to 10N110W. The ITCZ continues from 10N110W to 05N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 108W and 118W, and from 04N to 07N between 131W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 78W and 82W, from 03N to 05N between 85W and 88W, from 03N to 07N between 124W and 128W, and from 04N to 07N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. A broad weak ridge extends across the waters north of 18N. moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the open waters north of 20N, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters, except 7-10 ft in building NW swell across the waters off of Baja California Norte. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the middle of next week, except a pulse of fresh to strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California Sun night. A gap wind event is possible in the Tehuantepec region Thu and Thu night. The NW swell offshore of Baja California will linger into early next week. Haze from agricultural fires may spread offshore and reduce visibilities slightly at times. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed long period NW and SW swell.. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong during the overnight hours through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will move into the waters Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W, locally strong this evening. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of 7-10 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of 24N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the waters W of 120W in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ into early next week, except fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 132W this weekend due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N later tonight into early next week as well as across the west- central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell crossing the equator tonight and Sun will help to build seas to 8 ft across the southern waters. $$ Lewitsky