000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 13N106.5W this afternoon, moving W-NW 8 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 420 nm across the N semicircle, and within 360 nm SE and 240 nm SW quadrants. Midday scatterometer data showed strong E to SE winds to 25 kt across the NE quadrant of the low, where the strongest convection was located at that time. Seas there are likely to 8 ft. Satellite images indicate that the convection associated with the low pressure system has increased modestly across the SE portion of the circulation. Further development of this system is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on Sun. By mid next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward. Refer to the latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N75W to 07N80W to 09N87W to 08N93W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13N106.5W to 11N113W. The ITCZ continues from 11N113W to 03N136W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted from 02.5N to 09N E of 87W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N between 87W and 101W, and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 112W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. A broad weak ridge extends into the regional waters through 30N137W to 19N110W. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the open waters north of 20N. Fresh northeasterly winds extend in a narrow plume out of the Tehuantepec region to 15N100W. Moderate S to SW winds are found in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters, except 7-9 ft in building NW swell across the NW waters off of Baja Norte. The winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue to diminish through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will very briefly pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight and then again Sun night. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early next week. New NW swell has begun to arrive west of Baja California this afternoon, and will build seas to 7-10 ft offshore of Baja Norte tonight, and 4-7 ft across central portions. This swell will decay late Mon through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except 4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador in southerly swell. Winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong early Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will cross the equator tonight and move into the waters Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ, centered on a 1034 mb high near 37N137W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of 7-9 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters N of 25N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-9 ft range across the waters W of 120W in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ into early next week, except fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 132W this weekend due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N later tonight into early next week as well as across the west-central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell crossing the equator tonight and Sun will help to build seas to 8 ft across the southern waters. $$ Stripling