000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 12.5N106W this morning. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 300 nm across the E and 90 nm across the W semicircles. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are assumed to be occurring across the northeast portion of the low, where the strongest convection is located. Seas there are likely to 8 ft. Satellite images indicate that the convection associated with the low pressure system has changed little this morning. Further development of this system is expected over the next couple of days and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form today or on Sun. By mid next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward. Refer to the latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 08N76W to 07N79W to 09N87W to 08N94W to 1007 mb low pressure near 12.5N106W to 07.5N113W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N113W to 03N134W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted from 03N to 07.5N E of 86W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 87W and 100W, and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 113W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. A broad weak ridge extends into the regional waters through 30N135W to 19N110W. Moderate northerly winds prevail across the open waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds extending in a narrow plume out of the Tehuantepec region to 14N99W. Moderate S to SW winds are found in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters, locally to 7 ft in the Tehuantepec region. The fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish by this afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will very briefly pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early next week. New NW swell will arrive west of Baja California this weekend, building seas to 5-8 ft. This swell will decay by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except 4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador in southerly swell. Winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong early this morning and again early Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will move into the waters late in the weekend into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ, centered on a 1034 mb high near 38N136W. A dissipating trough, the remnants of a front, disrupts the ridge from 27N117W to 23N130W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of 7-9 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters behind the trough. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the waters in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ into early next week, except fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 132W this weekend due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N this weekend into early next week as well as across the west-central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell will approach the equator Sun helping to build seas to 8 ft across the southern waters. $$ Stripling