000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080824 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat May 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 12.5N104.5W early this morning. Current winds are fresh to strong, mainly in the northeast portion of the low, locally to 30 kt, with seas to 8 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low. In addition, a band of scattered moderate to strong convection straddles the coast of southern Mexico within 75 nm between 96W and 103W. Satellite images indicate that the convection associated with the low pressure system located continues to become better organized. Further development of this system is expected over the next couple of days and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form today or on Sun. By mid next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward. Refer to the latest NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 07N74W to 08N81W to 07N88W to 1007 mb low pressure near 12.5N104.5W to 07N111W. The ITCZ continues from 07N111W to 05N125W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 77W and 80W, from 03N to 08N between 80W and 86W, and from 07N to 13N between 95W and 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer offshore waters boundary. A weak ridge extends from 27N119W to 19N110W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the open waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Tehuantepec region. Moderate to fresh winds are west of Baja California and also in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters, locally to 7 ft in the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish by this afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will very briefly pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early next week. A set of NW swell will arrive west of Baja California this weekend, building seas to 5-8 ft. This swell will decay by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except 4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador in southerly swell. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong early this morning and again early Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will move into the waters late in the weekend into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico near the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. A trough, the remnants of a front, disrupts the ridge from 29N120W to 28N133W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of 7-9 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters behind the trough. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the waters in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ into early next week, except fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 132W this weekend due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N this weekend into early next week as well as across the west- central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell will approach the equator Sun helping to build seas to 8 ft across the southern waters. $$ Lewitsky