000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat May 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 12.5N104W this evening. Current winds are fresh to strong, mainly in the northeast portion of the low, locally to 30 kt, with seas to 8 ft. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since this morning, and further development of this system is expected over the next few days. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is now likely to form over the weekend or early next week before environmental conditions become less favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 07N74W to 07N90W to low pressure near 12.5N104W to 09N110W. The ITCZ continues from 09N110W to 03N133W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 80W and 83W, and within 180 nm in the northeast semicircle of the low near 12.5N104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 86W and 91W, and from 09.5N to 13N between 104W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico along the outer offshore waters boundary. A weak ridge extends from 27N119W to 17N110W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the open waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Tehuantepec region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except southerly at moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open waters, locally to 7 ft in the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish by Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will very briefly pulse in the northern Gulf of California in the next few hours. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early next week. A set of NW swell will arrive west of Baja California this weekend, building seas to 5-8 ft. This swell will decay by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except 4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador in southerly swell. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong early Sat and again early Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will move into the waters late in the weekend into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure located southwest of southern Mexico along the outer Mexican offshore waters boundary. A broad ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ. A trough, the remnants of a front, disrupts the ridge from 29N120W to 28N133W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the ITCZ, highest just north of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Northerly swell of 7-8 ft continues to propagate across the northern waters behind the trough. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the waters in a mix of mainly long period southerly and northerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ into early next week, except fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 132W this weekend due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Northerly swell will build north of 20N this weekend into early next week as well as across the west- central waters, decaying by mid-week. Southerly swell will approach the equator Sun helping to build seas to 8 ft across the southern waters. $$ Lewitsky