000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072132
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon 
trough near 11.5N102.5W this afternoon. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection continues within 240 nm across the N 
semicircle, and within 180 nm across the southwest quadrant. 
Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual improvement in
the organization of this system over the next few days as it 
moves generally W-NW. A short-lived tropical cyclone could form 
late Sun or Mon. This system has a medium chance for tropical 
cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09.5N76W to 09N92W to 1008 
mb low pressure near 11.5N102.5W to 09N110W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N110W to 04N129W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 78W 
and 98W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N 
to 13N between 106W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California to
near 15N104W. Moderate northerly winds are noted across the 
waters of central and south portions of Baja California, while 
moderate southerly winds prevail in the northern Gulf of 
California. A narrow plume of fresh to strong N-NE winds is 
noted in the Tehuantepec region and extends offshore to near 
14.5N97W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in 
the 3-6 ft range across the open offshore waters of Mexico. Haze 
is occurring offshore of southern Mexico due to ongoing 
agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico.

Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region will 
diminish Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds will affect the 
Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores during this period as developing 
low pressure described above moves west-northwest and out of the 
offshore waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop 
briefly in the northern Gulf of California this evening. NW swell
with building seas will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on 
Sat, subsiding Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate onshore winds prevail S of 08N across
most the region. Light to gentle winds are noted N of 08N, 
except for moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region. Seas 
are in the 3-5 ft range except 5-6 ft downwind of Papagayo.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will 
pulse to strong early Sat and then again early Sun. Moderate 
southerly swell is forecast to arrive across the region Mon and 
Mon night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge is noted across the waters north of the ITCZ,
centered on a 1035 mb high near 38N137W. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail Se of the ridge between 110W and 125W. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ. A decaying
frontal trough is seen across the northern waters from 30N120W to
27.5N135W. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail NW of this dying boundary in 
NW swell. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in mixed long period northerly
and southerly swell prevail elsewhere, except to 8 ft just N of
the ITCZ west of 132W.

High pressure will build in the wake of the decaying boundary,
producing freshening winds across the waters north of the ITCZ. 
Winds may diminish somewhat early next week as the pressure 
gradient weakens. The area of low pressure located southwest of 
the Tehuantepec region will move W-NW and pass south of the 
Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. NW swell in the 
7-9 ft range will spread east-southeast just south of 30N 
through the end of the week. A larger northerly swell will 
propagate south of 30N Fri night through the weekend into early 
next week with seas building to 8-11 ft mainly north of 22N 
between 120W and 135W. Background northerly swell combined with 
the freshening trades will build seas to the 7-9 ft range across 
the west-central waters W of 130W this weekend.
 
$$
Stripling