000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071523 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1012 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 11N101.5W this morning. Scattered moderate to strong convection has blossomed within 240 nm across the NW semicircle, while scattered moderate convection is found within 180 nm across the southwest quadrant. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual improvement in the organization of this system over the next few days as it moves generally W-NW, and a tropical cyclone could briefly form late Sun or Mon. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08.5N74W to 08N85W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N101.5W to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 14.5N between 78W and 98W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09.5N between 105W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California to near 15N111W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted across the waters of Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, while moderate southerly winds prevail in the northern Gulf of California. A narrow plume of fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region and extends offshore to near 14N98.5W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range across the open offshore waters of Mexico. Haze is occurring offshore of southern Mexico due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico, at times potentially reducing visibility. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds will affect the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores during this period as developing low pressure described above moves west-northwest and out of the offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes will diminish later today. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop briefly in the northern Gulf of California this evening. NW swell with building seas will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sat, subsiding Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate prevail across most the region, except for moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to strong early Sat and then again early Sun. Moderate southerly swell is forecast to arrive across the region Mon and Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge is noted across the waters north of the ITCZ where gentle to moderate winds prevail, except in the northwest waters where winds are moderate to locally fresh behind a decaying frontal boundary. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail NW of this dying boundary in NW swell. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell prevail elsewhere. High pressure will build in the wake of the decaying boundary, producing freshening winds across the waters north of the ITCZ. Winds may diminish somewhat early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. The area of low pressure located southwest of the Tehuantepec region will move W-NW and pass south of the Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. NW swell in the 7-9 ft range will spread east-southeast just south of 30N through the end of the week. A larger northerly swell will propagate south of 30N Fri night through the weekend into early next week with seas building to 8-11 ft mainly north of 22N between 120W and 135W. Background northerly swell combined with the freshening trades will build seas to the 7-9 ft range across the west-central waters this weekend. $$ Stripling