000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070820 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N74W to 08N90W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N101W to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 78W and 81W, from 05N to 08N between 90W and 94W, from 08N to 10N between 113W and 117W, and from 08N to 10N between 121W and 124W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the coasts of Guatemala and Mexico between 100W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted near Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, and in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open offshore waters of Mexico. Haze is occurring offshore of southern Mexico due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico, at times potentially reducing visibility. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds will affect the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores during this period as a low south-southwest of the area moves west- northwest. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes will diminish later today. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop briefly in the northern Gulf of California this evening. NW swell with building seas will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sat, subsiding Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate prevail across most the region, except for moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to strong early Sat and then again early Sun. Moderate southerly swell is forecast to arrive across the region Mon and Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge is noted across the waters north of the ITCZ where gentle to moderate winds prevail, except in the northwest waters where winds are moderate to locally fresh behind a decaying frontal boundary. Seas of 7-9 ft are arriving west of this boundary in NW swell. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell prevail elsewhere. Low pressure 1010 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N101W with associated convection described above. For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the decaying boundary freshening winds across the waters north of the ITCZ. Winds may diminish somewhat early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. The are of low pressure may move from southwest of the Tehuantepec region westward south of the Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. NW swell in the 7-9 ft range will spread east- southeast just south of 30N through the end of the week. A larger northerly swell will propagate south of 30N Fri night through the weekend into early next week with seas building to 8-11 ft mainly north of 22N between 120W and 135W. Background northerly swell combined with the freshening trades will build seas to the 7-9 ft range across the west-central waters this weekend. $$ Lewitsky