000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070309 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N86W to low pressure near 10N101W to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the low. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 116W and 119W, and from 05N to 07N between 128W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends along 21N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted near Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region. A large area of convection described above is southwest of the Tehuantepec region where a weak surface low may be developing. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the open offshore waters of Mexico. Haze is occurring offshore of southern Mexico due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico, at times potentially reducing visibility. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds will affect the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores during this period as a low south of the area moves west-northwest. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes will diminish Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop briefly in the northern Gulf of California Fri night. NW swell with building seas will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sat, subsiding Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate prevail across most the region, except for moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to strong early Sat and then again early Sun. Moderate southerly swell is forecast to arrive across the region Mon and Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge is noted across the waters north of the ITCZ where gentle to moderate winds prevail, except in the northwest waters where winds are moderate to locally fresh behind a decaying frontal boundary. Seas of 7-9 ft are arriving west of this boundary in NW swell. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the decaying boundary freshening winds across the waters north of the ITCZ. Winds may diminish somewhat early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. NW swell in the 7-9 ft range will spread east- southeast just south of 30N through the end of the week. A larger northerly swell will propagate south of 30N Fri night through the weekend into early next week with seas building to 8-11 ft mainly north of 22N between 120W and 135W. Background northerly swell combined with the freshening trades will build seas to the 7-9 ft range across the west-central waters this weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure may move from the Tehuantepec region westward south of the Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. $$ Lewitsky