000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1013 mb low near 10N100W to 07N123W. The ITCZ continues from 07N123W to 06N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N E of 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 270 nm NE semicircle and within 240 nm SW semicircle of the low. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A generally weak pressure gradient is maintaing light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California offshore waters. High pressure NW of the area will start to strengthen this evening and NW winds off Baja California Sur will increase to moderate to locally fresh with seas to 5 ft. These winds will gradually extend to the Baja California Norte offshores by Fri evening as the center of high pressure N of the area continues to build while shifting east-northeast. Moderate to locally fresh winds along the Baja coast will then prevail through late Sat while NW swell with seas to 8 ft start to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are forecast along Baja Sun through early next week with the swell subsiding Tue. Fresh to strong gap winds are forecast tonight into Sat in the Gulf of Tehuantepec between high pressure north of the area and the 1013 mb low embedded in the monsoon trough near 10N100W. Moderate to fresh winds will affect the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores during this period as the low moves west-northwest. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region, except for moderate offshore winds in and west of the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse into early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate swell will continue for the next several days over the region, until additional SW swell arrives Mon and Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging N of 20N has weakened, allowing a weak cold front to move into the the far NW waters this morning. This is resulting in gentle to moderate northerly winds across the area north of the ITCZ west of 120W, with primarily 4 to 6 ft seas. East of 120W, gentle southerly flow across the deep tropics into the monsoon trough is reaching as far north as 13N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between off the coast of Guatemala and southern Mexico. For the forecast, winds will increase along with additional swell across the waters north of 25N starting Fri, accompanying the weak cold front that dissipates as it moves eastward across the region. Southerly swell east of 105W will subside into late week. Looking ahead, low pressure is expected form along the monsoon trough Fri along 95W, then and track westward and deepen slightly well south of the Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. $$ Ramos