413 
AXPZ20 KNHC 060231
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N95W to 10N100W to
12N110W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N 
between 95W and 105W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging north of 20N is maintaining light to gentle mainly 
NW winds across the region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 2 ft 
or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate westerly winds will persist
through late week offshore most of Mexico. Fresh to strong gap
winds are forecast Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as low
pressure develops farther south, then tracks to the NW well off
the coast of southern Mexico. This pattern may also result in
shorter period swell beyond 120 nm off the coast of Guerrero and
Michoacan Sun and Mon. Farther north, expect moderate NW winds 
along with more NW swell off Baja California by the end of week 
related to a trough moving into the region. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are 
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse from Thu into early next week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate swell will 
continue for the next several days over the region. 


REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging north of 20N is weakening ahead of a cold front 
approaching from the west. This is resulting in gentle to
moderate northerly winds across the area north of the ITCZ west 
of 120W, with primarily 4 to 6 ft seas. East of 120W, gentle 
southerly flow across the deep tropics into the monsoon trough 
is reaching as far north as 11N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell.
Showers and thunderstorms in this area are ongoing, but have
weakened slightly over the past several hours. 

For the forecast, winds will increase along with additional 
swell across the waters north of 25N starting Fri, accompanying
the weak cold front that dissipates as it moves eastward across 
the region. Southerly swell east of 105W will subside into late 
week. Looking ahead, low pressure is expected form along the
monsoon trough Fri along 95W, then and track westward and 
deepen slightly well south of the Revillagigedo Islands through 
early next week. 
 
$$
Christensen